Publications
Peer-Reviewed Publications
*Authored by a student or postdoc under my mentorship or co-mentorship
Submitted
*In Revision. Varuolo-Clarke AM, Smerdon JE, Williams AP. Jet dynamics do not explain climate model simulations of muted multidecadal summer precipitation trends in Southeastern South America. Geophysical Research Letters.
In Revision. Mankin JS, Siegert N, Smerdon JE, Cook BI, Seager R, Williams AP, Lesk C, Li Z, Singh H, Martinez E. Nonlinear carbon feedbacks diminish future freshwater availability.
Submitted. Brucker CP, Rosario-Ortiz FL, Yao F, Williams AP, Becker WC, Kampf SK, Rajagopalan B, Livneh B. Wildfires drive significant multi-year water quality degradation across the U.S. West.
Under Review. Johnston MR, Barnes ML, Priesler Y, Smith WK, Biederman JA, Scott RL, Williams AP, Dannenberg M. Effects of Hot vs. Dry Vapor Pressure Deficit on Ecosystem Carbon and Water Fluxes.
Under Review. Parks SA, Guiterman CH, Margolis EQ, Lonerman M, Whitman E, Abatzoglou JT, Falk DA, Johnston JD, Daniels LD, Lafon CW, Loehman RA, Kipfmueller KF, Naficy CE, Parisien M-A, Portier J, Stambaugh MC, Williams AP, Wion AP, Yocom LL. A persistent fire deficit exists across most of North America despite recent increases in area burned.
Submitted. Jiang Y, Smerdon JE, Seager R, Wang G, Cook BI, Zheng C, Mankin JS, Williams AP. The influence of land-surface conditions on the 2020-21 western US drought.
Under Review. Cheng J, Goulden ML, Randerson J, Coffield S, Williams AP, Zhang Q, Davis S. Prioritizing wildfire fuel management in California.
Submitted. Luna-Niño R, Gershunov A, Ralph FM, Weyant A, Guirguis K, DeFlorio MJ, Cayan DR, Williams AP. Heresy in ENSO teleconnections: Atmospheric Rivers as disruptors of canonical seasonal precipitation anomalies in the Southwestern US.
Submitted. Hansen WD, Bartowitz K, Sandor ME, Balch, JK, Hall J, Harvey BJ, Kueppers L, Trugman AT, Williams AP, Gange N, Iglesias V, Johnston MR, Konings AG, Kibler CL, Marlier ME, Radeloff VC, Raymond CL, Schollaert CL. Actionable science for the growing impact of forest fires.
*In revision. Gallerani EM, Williams AP, Cavanaugh KC, Gillespie TW. Uncertainties in modeling Hawaii’s future precipitation and what it means for endangered forest birds: A review.
*Under review. Wang B, Madakumbura GD, Juliano TW, Williams AP. Simulating the potential for invasive grass expansion to alter wildfire behavior in Southern California with WRF-Fire.
*Submitted. Madakumbura GD, Moritz MA, McKinnon KA, Williams AP, Rahimi S, Bass B, Norris J, Fu R, Hall A. Climate change drives earlier wildfire season onset in California.
Under review. Cook BI, Williams AP, Smerdon JE, Marvel K, Seager R. Megapluvials in southwestern North America.
Under review. Zhou S, He Z, Kannenberg S, Miralles D, Gentine P, Peñuelas J, Williams AP, Yu B, Zhang Y. Contrasting ecosystem responses to drought dominated by transpiration.
*Under review. He Q, Williams AP, Johnston MR, Juang CS, Wang B. Influence of time-averaging of climate data on estimates of atmospheric vapor pressure deficit and inferred relationships with wildfire area in the western United States.
Published
[137] Accepted. Dannenberg M, McCabe G, Wise E, Johnston M, Huntzinger D, Williams AP. Recent increases in Missouri River streamflow driven by combined effects of climate variability, land-use change, and elevated CO2. AGU Advances.
[136] Accepted. Margolis E, Wion A, Abatzoglou J, Daniels L, Falk D, Guiterman C, Johnston J, Kipfmueller K, Lafon C, Rachel L, Lonergan M, Cameron N, Parisien M-A, Parks S, Portier J, Stambaugh M, Whitman E, Williams AP, Yocom L. Spatiotemporal synchrony of climate and fire occurrence across North American forests (1750-1880). Global Ecology and Biogeography.
[135] 2024. Ficklin DL, Touma D, Cook BI, Robeson SM, Hwang T, Scheff J, Williams AP, Watson H, Livneh B, Tye M, Wang L. Vegetation greening mitigates the impacts of increasing extreme rainfall on runoff events. Earth’s Future 12(12):e2024EF004661, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004661
[134] 2024. Balch JK, Iglesias V, Mahood AL, Cook MC, Amaral C, DeCastro A, Leyk S, McIntosh TL, Nagy RC, St. Denis L, Tuff T, Verleye E, Williams AP, Kolden CA. The fastest growing and most destructive fires in the U.S. (2001-2020). Science 386(6720):425–431, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adk5737
[133] 2024. McKinnon KA, Simpson I, Williams AP. The pace of change of summertime temperature extremes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 121(42):e2406143121, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2406143121
[132] 2024. Williams EL, Abatzoglou JT, Hegewisch KC, Williams AP. Anthropogenic climate change has reduced drought recovery probabilities across the western US. Nature Communications Earth & Environment. 5:546, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01640-z
[131] 2024. Novick KA, Ficklin DL, Grossiord C, Konings AG, Martínez-Vialta J, Walid S, Trugman AT, Williams AP, Wright AJ, Abatzoglou JT, Dannenberg MP, Gentine P, Kaiyu G, Johnston MR, Lowman LEL, Moore DJP, McDowell NG. The impacts of rising vapour pressure deficit in natural and managed ecosystems. Plant, Cell, & Environment 47(9):3561-3589, https://doi.org/10.1111/pce.14846
[130] 2024. Konings A, Rao K, McCormick EL, Trugman AT, Williams AP, Diffenbaugh NS, Yerba M, Zhao M. Tree species explain only half of explained spatial variability in plant water sensitivity. Global Change Biology 30(7):e71425, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17425
[129] 2024. Hall J, Sandor M, Harvey BJ, Parks S, Trugman AT, Williams AP, Hansen WD. Forest carbon storage in the western United States: distribution, drivers, and trends. Earth’s Future 12(7):e2023EF004399, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004399
[128] 2024. Williams AP, McKinnon KA, Anchukaitis KJ, Gershunov A, Varuolo-Clarke AM, Clemesha RES, Liu H. Anthropogenic intensification of cool-season precipitation is not yet detectable across the western United States. Journal of Geophysical Research–Atmospheres 128(12):e2023JD040537, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD040537
[127] 2024. Stephenson NL, Caprio AC, Soderberg DN, Das AJ, Lopez EL, Williams AP. Post-fire reference densities for giant sequoia seedlings in a new era of high-severity wildfire. Forest Ecology and Management 562:121916, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2024.121916
[126] 2024. Jacobson TWP, Seager R, Williams AP, Simpson IR, McKinnon KA, Liu H. An unexpected decline in spring atmospheric humidity in the interior Southwestern United states and implications for forest fires. Journal of Hydrometeorology 25(3):373–390, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-23-0121.1
[125] 2024. Williams AP, Anchukaitis KJ, Varuolo-Clarke AM. Atmospheric rivers are responsible for cyclicity in Sierra Nevada precipitation. Journal of Climate 35(5):1613–1627, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0421.1
*[124] 2023. Rao K, Williams AP, Diffenbaugh NS, Yerba M, Bryant C, Konings AG. Dry live fuels increase the likelihood of lightning-caused fires. Geophysical Research Letters 50(15):e2022GL100975, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100975
[123] 2023 Tripathy KP, Mukherjee S, Mishra AK, Mann ME, Williams AP. Climate change will accelerate the high-end risk of compound drought and heatwave events. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 120(8):e2219825120, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2219825120
*[122] 2023. Borkotoky SS, Williams AP, Steinschneider S. Six hundred years of reconstructed atmospheric river activity along the US West Coast. Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres 128(12):e2022JD038321, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD038321
*[121] 2023. Buch J, Williams AP, Juang C, Hansen WD, Gentine P. SMLFire1.0: a stochastic machine learning (SML) model for wildfire activity in the western United States. Geoscientific Model Development 16:3407–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3407-2023
[120] 2023. Abatzoglou JT, Kolden C, Williams AP, Sadegh M, Balch JK, Hall A. Downslope wind-driven fires in the western United States. Earth’s Future 11(5):e2022EF003471, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003471
*[119] 2022. Zhou S, Williams AP, Lintner BR, Findell KL, Keenan TF, Zhang Y, Gentine P. Diminishing seasonality of subtropical water availability dominated by soil moisture-atmosphere feedbacks. Nature Communications 13:5756, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33473-9
[118] 2022. Cook BI, Smerdon JE, Cook ER, Williams AP, Anchukaitis K, Mankin JS, Allen K, Andreu-Hayles L, Ault T, Belmecheri S, Coats S, Coulthard B, Fonsu B, Grierson P, Griffin D, Herrera D, Ionita M, Lehner F, Leland C, Marvel K, Morales M, Mishra V, Ngoma J, Nguyen H, O’Donnell A, Palmer J, Rao M, Rodriguez-Caton M, Seager R, Stahle D, Stevenson S, Thapa U, Varuolo-Clarke A, Wise E. Megadrought in the Common Era and the Anthropocene. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00329-1
[117] 2022. Cook BI, Williams AP, Marvel KD. Projected changes in early summer ridging and drought over the Central Plains. Environmental Research Letters 17:104020, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8e1a
*[116] 2022. Hansen WD, Schwartz NB, Williams AP, Albrich K, Kueppers LM, Ramming A, Reyer CPO, Staver AC, Seidl R. Global forests are influenced by legacies of past inter-annual temperature variability. Environmental Research: Ecology 1:011001, https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-664X/ac6e4a
*[115] 2022. Hansen WD, Krawchuk MA, Trugman AT, Williams AP. The dynamic temperate and boreal fire and forest-ecosystem simulator (DYNAFFOREST): Development and evaluation. Environmental Modeling and Software 156:105473, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105473
[114] 2022. Jacobson TWP, Seager R, Williams AP, Henderson N. Climate dynamics preceding summer forest fires in California and the extreme case of 2018. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 61(8):989–1002, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-21-0198.1
[113] 2022. Dannenberg MP, Yan D, Barnes ML, Smith WK, Johnston MR, Biederman JA, Knowles JF, Scottt RL, Wang X, Duan T, Litvak ME, Kimball JS, Williams AP, Zhang Y. Exceptional heat and atmospheric dryness amplified losses of primary production during the 2020 U.S. Southwest hot drought. Global Change Biology 28(16):4794–4806, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16214.
*[112] 2022. Varuolo-Clarke A, Williams AP, Smerdon JE, Ting M, Bishop DA. Influence of the South American low-level jet on the austral summer precipitation trend in southeastern South America. Geophysical Research Letters 49(9):e2021GL096409, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL096409
*[111] 2022. Zhou S, Keenan TF, Williams AP, Lintner BR, Zhang Y, Gentine P. Large divergence in tropical hydrological projections caused by model spread in vegetation. Earth’s Future 10(4):e2021EF002457, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002457
[110] 2022. Hammond W, Williams AP, Abatzoglou JT, Adams HD, Klein T, Rodríguez RL, Sàenz-Romero C, Hartmann H, Breshears DD, Allen CD. Global field observations of tree die-off reveal hotter-drought fingerprint for Earth’s forests. Nature Communications 13:1761, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29289-2
*[109] 2022. Juang CS, Williams AP, Abatzoglou JT, Hurteau MD, Balch JK, Moritz MA. Causes of exponentially increasing burned area with rising aridity in the western United States. Geophysical Research Letters 49(5):e2021GL097131, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097131
[108] 2022. Williams AP, Livneh B, McKinnon KA, Hansen WD, Mankin JS, Cook BI, Smerdon JE, Varuolo-Clarke AM, Bjarke NR, Juang CS, Lettenmaier DP. Growing impact of wildfire on western United States water supply. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 119 (10):e2114069119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2114069119
[107] 2022. Dong C, Williams AP, Abatzoglou JT, Lin K, Okin GS, Gillespie TW, Long D, Lin Y. -H., Hall A, MacDonald GM. The season for large fires in Southern California is projected to lengthen in a changing climate. Communications Earth & Environment 3:22, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00344-6
[106] 2022. Balch JK, Abatzoglou JT, Joseph MB, Koontz MJ, Mahood AL, McGlinchy J, Cattau ME, Williams AP. Warming weakens the nighttime barrier to global fire. Nature 602:442–448, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-04325-1
[105] 2022. Williams AP, Cook BI, Smerdon JE. Rapid intensification of the emerging southwestern North American megadrought in 2020–2021. Nature Climate Change 12:232–234, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01290-z
*[104] 2022. Rao K, Williams AP, Diffenbaugh NS, Yerba M, Konings AG. Plant-water sensitivity regulates wildfire vulnerability. Nature Ecology & Evolution 6:332–339, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-021-01654-2
*[103] 2021. Bishop DA, Williams AP, Seager R, Cook ER, Peteet DM, Cook BI, Rao MP, Stahle DW. Placing the east-west North American aridity gradient in a multi-century context. Environmental Research Letters 16(11):114043, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2f63
[102] 2021. Abatzoglou JT, Battisti DS, Williams AP, Hansen WD, Harvey BJ, Kolden CA. Continued increases in western US forest fire despite growing fuel constraints. Communications Earth & Environment 2:227, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00299-0
[101] 2021. Steiger NJ, Smerdon JE, Williams AP, Seager R, Varuolo-Clarke A. Coupled megadrought risk in North and South America. Nature Geoscience 14:739–744, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00819-9
[100] 2021. Gershunov A, Guzman-Morales J, Hatchett B, Guirguis K, Aguilera R, Shulgina T, Abatzoglou JT, Cayan D, Pierce D, Williams AP, Small I, Clemesha R, Schwarz L, Benmarhnia T, Tardy A. Hot and cold flavors of southern California’s Santa Ana winds: their causes, trends, and links with wildfire. Climate Dynamics 57:2233–2248, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05802-z
[99] 2021. Cook BI, Mankin JS, Williams AP, Marvel KD, Smerdon JE, Liu H. Uncertainties, limits, and benefits for climate change mitigation for soil moisture drought in Southwestern North America. Earth’s Future, 9(9):e2021EF002014, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002014
[98] 2021. Marvel KD, Cook BI, Bonfils C, Smerdon JE, Williams AP, Liu H. Projected changes to hydroclimate seasonality in the continental United States. Earth’s Future, 9(9):e2021EF002019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002019
*[97] 2021. Varuolo-Clarke AM, Smerdon JE, Williams AP, Seager R. Gross discrepancies between observed and simulated 20th to 21st-century precipitation trends in Southeastern South America. Journal of Climate, 34(15):6441–6457, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0746.1
*[96] 2021. Borkotoky SS, Williams AP, Steinschneider S, Cook ER. Reconstructing extreme precipitation in the Sacramento River watershed using tree-ring based proxies of cold-season precipitation. Water Resources Research 57(4):e2020WR028824, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028824
[95] 2021. Gaglioti BV, Berner LT, Jones BM, Orndahl K, Williams AP, Andreu-Hayles L, D’Arrigo RD, Goetz SJ, Mann DH. Tussocks enduring or shrubs greening: Alternate responses to changing fire regimes in the Noatak River Valley, Alaska. JGR–Biogeosciences 126(4):e2020JG006009, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JG006009
[94] 2021. McDermid SS, Cook I, De Kauwe MG, Mankin J, Smerdon JE, Williams AP, Seager R, Puma MJ, Aleinov I, Kelley M, Nazarenko L. Disentangling the regional climate impacts of competing vegetation responses to elevated atmospheric CO2. JGR-Atmospheres 126(5):e2020JD034108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034108
[93] 2021. Williams AP, Anchukaitis KJ, Woodhouse CA, Meko DM, Cook BI, Bolles K, Cook ER. Tree rings and observations suggest no stable cycles in Sierra Nevada cool-season precipitation. Water Resources Research 57(3):e2020WR028599, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028599
*[92] 2021. Bolles K, AP Williams, ER Cook, BI Cook, DA Bishop. Tree-ring reconstruction of the atmospheric ridging feature that causes flash drought in the central United States since 1500. Geophysical Research Letters 48(4):e2020GL091271, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091271
*[91] 2021. Baek SH, Smerdon JE, Cook BI, Williams AP. US Pacific coastal droughts are predominantly driven by internal atmospheric variability. Journal of Climate 34(5):1947–1962, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0365.1
*[90] 2021. Zhou S, Williams AP, Lintner BR, Berg AM, Zhang Y, Keenan TF, Cook BI, Hagemann S, Seneviratne S, Gentine P. Soil moisture-atmosphere feedbacks mitigate projected surface water availability declines in drylands. Nature Climate Change 11:38–44, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00945-z
[89] 2021. Abatzoglou JT, Juang CS, Williams AP, Kolden CA, Westerling AL. Increasing synchronous fire danger in forests of the western United States. Geophysical Research Letters 48(2):e2020GL091377, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091377
*[88] 2021. Hansen WD, Fitzimmons R, Olnes J, Williams AP. Assessing resilience of an alternate vegetation type following forest conversion in the boreal biome. Journal of Ecology 109(1):85–98, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13446
[87] 2020. Dye AW, Rastogi B, Clemesha REW, Kim JB, Samelson RM, Still CJ, Williams AP. Spatial patterns and trends of summertime low cloudiness for the Pacific Northwest, 1997-2017. Geophysical Research Letters 47(16):e2020GL088121, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088121
[86] 2020. Cook BI, McDermid S, Puma M, Williams AP, Seager R, Kelley M, Nazarenko L, Aleinov I. Divergent regional climate consequences of maintaining current irrigation rates. JGR-Atmospheres 125(114):e2019JD031814, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031814
[85] 2020. Morales MS, Cook ER, Barichivich J, Christie DA, Villalba R, LeQuesne C, Srur AM, Ferrero ME, Gonzalez-Reyes A, Couvreax F, Matskovsky V, Aravena JC, Lara A, Mundo IA, Rojas F, Prieto MR, Smerdon JE, Bianchi LO, Masiokas MH, Urrutia R, Muñoz AA, Rodriguez-Caton M, Rojas-Badilla M, Alvarez C, Lopez L, Luckman B, Lister D, Harris I, Jones PD, Williams AP, Velazquez G, Aliste D, Aguilera-Betti I, Marcotti E, Flores F, Muñoz T, Cuq E, Boninsegna JA. Six hundred years of South American tree rings reveal in increase in severe hydroclimatic events since the mid-20th century. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 117(29):16816–16823, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2002411117
[84] 2020. Zhang Y, Commane R, Zhou S, Williams AP, Gentine P. Light limitation regulates the response of autumn terrestrial carbon uptake to warming. Nature Climate Change 10:739–743, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0806-0
[83] 2020. Cook BI, Mankin JS, Marvel KM, Williams AP, Smerdon JE, Anchukaitis KJ. Twenty-first century drought projections from the CMIP6 forcing scenarios. Earth’s Future 8(6):e2019EF001461, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001461
*[82] 2020. Rao K, Williams AP, Flefil JF, Konings AG. SAR-enhanced mapping of live fuel moisture content. Remote Sensing of Environment 245:111797, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2020.111797
[81] 2020. Williams AP, Cook ER, Smerdon JE, Cook BI, Abatzoglou JT, Bolles K, Baek SH, Badger A, Livneh B. Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought. Science 368:314–318, https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6488/314
[80] 2020. Zhang Y, Parazoo NC, Williams AP, Zhou S, Gentine P. Large and projected strengthening moisture limitation on end-of-season photosynthesis. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 117(17):9216–9222, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1914436117
[79] 2020. Goss M, Swain D, Sarhadi A, Kolden K, Abatzoglou J, Williams AP, Diffenbaugh N. Climate change is increasing the risk of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California. Environmental Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab83a7
[78] 2020. Baublitz C, Fiore A, Clifton O, Mao J, Li J, Correa G, Westervelt D, Horowitz, Paulot, Williams AP. Sensitivity to tropospheric ozone over the Southeast USA to dry deposition. Geophysical Research Letters 47(7):e2020GL087158, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087158
[77] 2020. Gebrehiwot Gebbregeorgis E, Robertson I, Koprowski M, Zhou L, Gao P, Williams AP, Eshetu Z, Wils THG. Historical droughts recorded in the extended Juniperus procera ring-width chronology from the Ethiopian Highlands. International Journal of Biometeorology , https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-01863-7
[76] 2020. Stahle DW, Cook ER, Burnette DJ, Torbenson MCA, Howard IM, Griffin D, Villanueva-Diaz J, Cook BI, Williams AP, Watson E, Sauchyn DJ, Pederson N, Woodhouse CA, Pederson GT, Meko D, Coulthard B, Crawford CJ. Dynamics, variability, and change in seasonal precipitation reconstructions for North America. Journal of Climate 33:3173–3195, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0270.1
[75] 2020. Turner MG, Calder JW, Cumming GS, Hughes TP, Jentsch A, LaDeau S, Lenton TM, Shuman BN, Turetsky MR, Ratajczak A, Williams JW, Williams AP, Carpenter SR. Climate change, ecosystems, and abrupt change: Science priorities. Philosophical Transactions B 375(1794):1–11, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0105
[74] 2019. Mankin JS, Seager R, Smerdon JE, Cook BI, Williams AP. Mid-latitude freshwater availability reduced by projected vegetation responses to climate change. Nature Geoscience 12:983–988, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0480-x
[73] 2019. Cavanaugh KC, Dangremond EM, Doughty CL, Williams AP, Parker JD, Hayes MA, Rodriguez W, Feller IC. 250 years of climate-driven regime shifts in a mangrove-saltmarsh ecotone. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 16(43):21602–21608, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1902181116
*[72] 2019. Zhou S, Williams AP, Zhang Y, Berg AM, Cook BI, Hagemann S, Lorenz R, Seneviratne SI, Gentine P. Land-atmosphere feedbacks exacerbate compound soil drought and atmospheric aridity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 116(38):18848–19953, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1904955116
[71] 2019. Williams AP, Abatzoglou JT, Gershunov A, Guzman-Moralez J, Bishop DA, Balch JK, Lettenmaier DP. Observed impacts of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in California. Earth’s Future 7(8):892–910, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001210
*[70] 2019. Bishop DA, Williams AP, Seager, R. Increased fall precipitation in the southeastern US driven by higher-intensity, frontal precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters 46(14):8300–8309, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083177
[69] 2019. Gaglioti BV, Mann DH, Williams AP, Wiles GC, Stoffel M, Oelkers R, Jones BM, Andreu-Hayles L. Traumatic resin ducts in Alaska mountain hemlock trees as a new proxy for past winter storminess. Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences 124(7):1923–1938, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JG004849
[68] 2019. Cook BI, Seager R, Williams AP, Puma M, McDermid S, Kelley M, Zazarenko L. Climate change amplification of natural drought variability: the historic mid-twentieth century North American drought in a warmer world. Journal of Climate 32(17):5417–5436, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0832.1
[67] 2019. Steiger N, Smerdon J, Cook BI, Seager R, Williams AP, Cook ER. Oceanic and radiative forcing of medieval megadroughts in the American Southwest. Science Advances 5(7): eaax0087, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax0087
[66] 2019. Rodriguez-Caton M, Villalba R, Srur A, Williams AP. Radial growth patterns associated with tree mortality in Nothofagus pumilio forest. Forests 10(6):489, https://doi.org/10.3390/f10060489
*[65] 2019. Pascolini-Campbell M, Seager R, Williams AP, Cook BI, Pinson A. Dynamics and variability of the spring dry season in the United States Southwest as observed in AmeriFlux and NLDAS-2 data. Journal of Hydrometeorology 20:1081–1102, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0154.1
[64] 2019. Marvel K, Cook BI, Bonfils C, Durack PJ, Smerdon JE, Williams AP. Twentieth-century hydroclimate changes consistent with human influence. Nature 569:59–65, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1149-8
[63] 2019. Dong C, MacDonald GM, Willis K, Gillespie T, Okin GS, AP Williams. Vegetation responses to 2012-2016 drought in northern and southern California. Geophysical Research Letters 46(7):3810–3821, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082137
[62] 2019. Cook ER, Kushnir Y, Smerdon JE, Williams AP, Anchukaitis KJ, Wahl ER. A Euro-Mediterranean tree-ring reconstruction of the winter NAO index since 910 C.E. Climate Dynamics 53(3-4):1567–1580, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04696-2
*[61] 2019. Baek SH, Smerdon JE, Seager R, Williams AP, Cook BI. Pacific Ocean forcing and atmospheric variability are the dominant causes of spatially widespread droughts in the contiguous United States. Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres 124(5):2507–2524, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029219
[60] 2019. Duffy PB, Field CB, Diffenbaugh NS, Doney SC, Dutton Z, Goodman S, Heinzerling L, Hsiang S, Lobell DB, Mickley LJ, Myers S, Natali SM, Parmesan C, Tierney S, Williams AP. Strengthened scientific support for the Endangerment Finding for atmospheric greenhouse gases. Science 363(6427):eaat5982, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat5982
[59] 2019. Levesque M, Andreu-Hayles L, Smith WK, Williams AP, Hobi ML, Pederson N. Tree-ring isotopes capture interannual vegetation productivity dynamics at the biome scale. Nature Communications 10:742, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08634-y
[58] 2019. Riley KL, Williams AP, Urbanski SP, Calkin DE, Short KC, O’Conor CD. Will landscape fire increase in the future? A systems approach to climate, fire, fuel, and human drivers. Current Pollution Reports, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40726-019-0103-6
[57] 2019. Abatzoglou JT, Williams AP, Barbero R. Global emergence of anthropogenic climate change in fire weather indices. Geophysical Research Letters 46(1):326–336, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080959
*[56] 2019. Zhou S, Zhang Y, Williams AP, Gentine P. Projected increases in intensity, frequency, and terrestrial carbon costs of compound drought and aridity events. Science Advances 5(1):eaau5740, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau5740
*[55] 2019. Bishop DA, Williams AP, Seager R, Fiore AM, Cook BI, Mankin JS, Singh D, Smerdon JE, Rao MP. Investigating the causes of increased twentieth-century fall precipitation over the southeastern United States. Journal of Climate 32:575–590, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0244.1
[54] 2019. Law DJ, Adams HD, Breshears DD, Cobb NS, Bradford JB, Zou CB, Field JP, Gardea AA, Williams AP, Huxman TE. Bioclimatic envelopes for individual demographic events driven by extremes: plant mortality from drought and warming. International Journal of Plant Sciences, 180(1):53–62, https://doi.org/10.1086/700702
[53] 2018. Cook BI, Williams AP, Smerdon JE, Palmer J, Cook ER, Stahle DW, Coats S. Cold tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures during the late sixteenth century North American megadrought. Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres 123(20):11307–11320, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029323
[52] 2018. Herrera-Hernandez DA, Ault TR, Fasullo JT, Coats SJ, Carillo CM, Cook BI, Williams AP. Exacerbation of the 2013–2016 Pan-Caribbean drought by anthropogenic warming. Geophysical Research Letters 45(19):10619–10626, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079408
[51] 2018. Bedsworth L, Cayan D, Franco G, Fisher L, Ziaja S. (I was 1 of 45 Contributing Authors) California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment, Statewide Summary Report. http://www.climateassessment.ca.gov/state/docs/20190116-StatewideSummary.pdf
[50] 2018. Abatzoglou JT, Williams AP, Boschetti L, Zubkova M, Kolden CA. Global patterns of interannual climate-fire relationships. Global Change Biology 24(11):5164–5175, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14405
[49] 2018. Williams AP, Gentine P, Moritz MA, Roberts DA, Abatzoglou JT. Effect of reduced summer cloud shading on evaporative demand and wildfire in coastal southern California. Geophysical Research Letters 45(11):5653–5662, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077319
[48] 2018. Steinschneider S, Ho M, Williams AP, Cook ER, Lall U. A 500-year paleoclimate reconstruction of extreme cold-season precipitation and atmospheric river storm tracks across the Southwestern U.S. Geophysical Research Letters 45(11):5672-5680, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078089
[47] 2018. Balch JK, Schoennagel T, Williams AP, Abatzoglou JT, Cattau ME, Mietkiewicz NP, St. Denis LA. Switching on the big burn of 2017 in the U.S. Fire 1(1):17, https://doi.org/10.3390/fire1010017
[46] 2018. Mankin JS, Smerdon JE, Cook BI, Williams AP, Horton RM, Seager R. Blue water tradeoffs with ecosystems in a CO2-enriched climate. Geophysical Research Letters 45(7):3115–3125, https://doi.org/10.1002/2018GL077051
[45] 2018. Seager R, Lis N, Feldman J, Ting M, Williams AP, Nakamura J, Liu H. Whither the 100th Meridian? The once and future physical and human geography of America’s arid-humid divide: Part I: The story so far. Earth Interactions 22(5):1–22, https://doi.org/10.1175/EI-D-17-0011.1
[44] 2018. Seager R, Feldman J, Lis N, Ting M, Williams AP, Nakamura J, Liu H. Whither the 100th Meridian? The once and future physical and human geography of America’s arid-humid divide: Part II: The meridian moves east. Earth Interactions 22(5):1–24, https://doi.org/10.1175/EI-D-17-0012.1
[43] 2018. Stephenson NL, Das AJ, Ampersee N, Cahill K, Caprio A, Sanders J, Williams AP. Patterns and correlates of giant sequoia foliage dieback during California’s 2012-2016 hotter drought. Forest Ecology and Management 419-420:268–278, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2017.10.053
[42] 2018. Cook BI, Williams AP, Seager R, Smerdon JE, Singh D, Mankin J. Revisiting the precipitation dipole in western North America and its importance for Pacific coastal droughts in the United States. Journal of Climate 31:25–43, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0172.1
[41] 2017. Williams AP, Cook BI, Smerdon J, Bishop DA, Seager R, Mankin JS. The 2016 southeastern US drought: an extreme departure from centennial wetting and cooling. Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres 122(20):10888–10905, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027523
[40] 2017. Hydro2k Consortium (Smerdon JE, et al.). Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era. Climate of the Past, 13:1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017
[39] 2017. Mankin JS, Smerdon JE, Cook BI, Williams AP, Seager R. The curious case of projected 21st-century drying but greening in the American West. Journal of Climate 30(21):8689–8710, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0213.1
[38] 2017. Wang K, Williams AP, Lettenmaier D. How much have California winters warmed over the last century? Geophysical Research Letters 44(17):8893–8900, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017RL075002
[37] 2017. Baek SH, Smerdon JE, Coats S, Williams AP, Cook BI, Cook ER, Seager R. Precipitation, temperature, and teleconnection signals across the combined North American, Monsoon Asia, and Old World Drought Atlases. Journal of Climate 30:7141–7155, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0766.1
[36] 2017. McCullough IM, Davis FW, Williams AP. A range of possibilities: assessing geographic variation in climate sensitivity of ponderosa pine using tree rings. Forest Ecology and Management 402:223–233, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2017.07.025
[35] 2017. Abatzoglou JT, Kolden C, Williams AP, Lutz J, Smith A. Climatic influences on interannual variability in regional burn severity across western US forests. International Journal of Wildland Fire 26(4):269–275, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF16165
[34] 2017. Konnings AG, Williams AP, Gentine P. Sensitivity of grassland productivity to aridity is controlled by plant hydraulics. Nature Geoscience 10:284–288, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2903
[33] 2016. Abatzoglou JT, Williams AP. Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 113(42):11770–11775, https://doi.org/10.1073.pnas.1607171113
[32] 2016. Fischer DT, Still CJ, Ebert C, Baguskas S, Williams AP. Fog drip maintains dry season ecological function in a California coastal pine forest. Ecosphere 7(6):e01364, https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.1364
[31] 2016. Xu C, Liu H, Williams AP, Yin Y, Wu X. Trends toward an earlier peak of the growing season in northern hemisphere mid-latitudes. Global Change Biology 22(8):2852–2860, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13224
*[30] 2016. Rastogi B, Williams AP, Fischer DT, Iacobellis S, McEachern K, Carvalho LMV, Jones C, Baguskas SA, Still CJ. Spatial and temporal patterns of cloud cover and fog inundation in coastal California: Ecological implications. Earth Interactions 20(15):1–19, https://doi.org/10.1175/EI-D-15-0033.1
[29] 2016. Cook BI, Cook ER, Smerdon JE, Seager R, Williams AP, Coats S, Stahle DW, Villanueva-Diaz J. North American Megadroughts in the Common Era: Reconstructions and Simulations. WIREs Climate Change 7(3):411–432, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.394
[28] 2016. Williams AP, Abatzoglou JT. Recent advances and remaining uncertainties in resolving past and future climate effects on global fire activity. Current Climate Change Reports 2(1):1–14, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0031-0
[27] 2016. Clemsha RES, Gershunov A, Iacobellis S, Williams AP, Cayan D. The northward march of summer low cloudiness along the California coast. Geophysical Research Letters 43(3):1287–1295, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067081
[26] 2016. Mcdowell NG, Williams AP, Xu C, Pockman WT, Dickman LT, Sevanto S, Pangle R, Limousin J, Plaut J, Mackay DS, Ogee J, Domec JC, Allen CD, Fisher RA, Jiang X, Muss JD, Breshears DD, Rauscher SA, Koven C. Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise. Nature Climate Change 6:295–300, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2873
[25] 2015. Rauscher SA, Jiang X, Steiner A, Williams AP, Cai MD, McDowell NG. Sea surface warming patterns drive future vegetation change. Journal of Climate 28(20):7943–7961, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00528.1
[24] 2015. Williams AP, Seager R, Abatzoglou JT, Cook BI, Smerdon JE, Cook ER. Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012–2014. Geophysical Research Letters 42(16):6819–6828, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064924
[23] 2015. Anderegg WRL, Schwalm C, Biondi F, Camarero JJ, Koch G, Litvak M, Ogle K, Shaw JD, Shevliakova E, Williams AP, Wolf A, Pacala S. Pervasive drought legacies in forest ecosystems and their implications for carbon cycle models. Science 349(6247):528–532, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aab1833
[22] 2015. Seager R, Hooks A, Williams AP, Cook BI, Nakamura J, Henderson N. Climatology, variability and trends in United States vapor pressure deficit, an important fire-related meteorological quantity. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 54(6):1121–1141, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0321.1
[21] 2015. Williams AP, Schwartz RE, Iacobellis S, Seager R, Cook BI, Still CJ, Husak G, Michaelsen J. Urbanization causes increased cloud-base height and decreased fog in coastal southern California. Geophysical Research Letters 42(5):1527–1536, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063266
[20] 2015. Cavanaugh KC, Parker JD, Cook-Patton SC, Feller IC, Williams AP, Kellner JR. Integrating physiological threshold experiments with climate modeling to project mangrove species’ range expansion. Global Change Biology 21(5):1928–1938, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12843
[19] 2015. McDowell NG, Coops NC, Beck P, Chambers J, Gangodagamage C, Hicke JA, Huang C, Kennedy R, Krofcheck D, Litvak M, Meddens A, Muss J, Negrón-Juarez R, Peng C, Schwantes A, Swenson JJ, Vernon L, Williams AP, Xu C, Zhao M, Running S, Allen CD. Global satellite monitoring of climate-induced vegetation disturbances. Trends in Plant Science 20(2):114–123, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tplants.2014.10.008
[18] 2015. Williams AP, Seager R, Macalady AK, Berkelhammer M, Crimmins M, Swetnam TW, Trugman AT, Buenning N, Noone D, McDowell NG, Hryniw N, Mora CI, Rahn T. Correlations between components of the water balance and burned area reveal new insights for predicting forest-fire area in the southwest United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire 24(1):14–26, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF14023
[17] 2014. Williams AP, Seager R, Berkelhammer M, Macalady AK, Crimmins M, Swetnam TW, Trugman AT, Buenning N, Hryniw N, McDowell NG, Noone D, Mora CI, Rahn T. Causes and implications of extreme atmospheric moisture demand during the record-breaking 2011 wildfire season in the southwest United States. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 53(12):2671–2684, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0053.1
[16] 2013. Adams HD, Williams AP, Xu C, Rauscher SA, Jiang X, McDowell NG. Empirical and process-based approaches to forest mortality models. Frontiers in Plant Science 4:438, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2013.00438
[15] 2013. McDowell NG, Fischer RA, Xu C, Domec JC, Hölttä T, Mackay DS, Sperry JS, Boutz A, Dickman L, Gehres N, Limousin JM, Macalady A, Martinez-Vilálta J, Mencuccini M, Plaut JA, Ogee J, Pangle RE, Rasse DP, Ryan MG, Sevanto S, Waring R, Williams AP, Yepez EA, Pockman WT. Tansley Review: Evaluating theories of drought-induced vegetation mortality using a multi-model-experiment framework. New Phytologist 200:304–321, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.12465
[14] 2013. Breshears DD, Adams HD, Eamus D, McDowell NG, Law DJ, Will RE, Williams AP, Zou C. The critical amplifying role of increasing atmospheric moisture demand on future tree mortality and associated regional die-off. Frontiers in Plant Science 4:266, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2013.00266
[13] 2013. Liu H, Williams AP, Allen CD, Guo D, Wu X, Anenkhonov OA, Liang E, Qi Z, Sandanov DV, Korolyuk AY, Badmaeva NK. Rapid warming accelerates tree growth decline in semi-arid forests in Inner Asia. Global Change Biology 19:2500–2510, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12217
[12] 2013. Jiang X, Rauscher SA, Ringler TD, McDowell NG, Lawrence D, Williams AP, Cai M. Increasing risk of tree mortality in western North America towards the end of the 21st century. Journal of Climate 26:3671–3687, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00430.1
[11] 2013. Williams AP, Allen CD, Macalady AK, Woodhouse C, Meko D, Swetnam TW, Cook ER, Griffin D, Rauscher SA, Seager R, Dean J, Grissino-Mayer HD, Gangodagamage C, Cai M, McDowell N. Article: Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest-drought stress and tree mortality. Nature Climate Change 3:292–297, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1693
[10] 2013. Carbone MS, Williams AP, Ambrose AR, Bradley E, Boot CM, Dawson TE, Schaeffer SM, Schimel JP, Still CJ. Cloud shading and fog drip influence the metabolism of a coastal pine ecosystem. Global Change Biology 19:484–497, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12054
[9] 2012. Williams AP, Funk C, Michaelsen J, Rauscher SA, Robertson I, Wils T, Koprowski M, Eshetu Z, Loader N. Recent summer precipitation trends in the Greater Horn of Africa and the emerging role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature. Climate Dynamics 39:2307–2328, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1222-y
[8] 2012. Marshall M, Tu K, Funk C, Michaelsen J, Williams AP, Williams C, Ardo J, Marie B, Cappelaere B, Grandcourt A, Nickless A, Nouvellon Y, Scholes R, Wutsch W. Combining surface reanalysis and remote sensing data for monitoring evapotranspiration, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 9:1547–1587, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-9-1547-2012
[7] 2011. Williams AP, Funk C. A westward extension of the warm pool intensifies the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa. Climate Dynamics 37:2417–2435, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0984-y
[6] 2011. Williams AP, Xu C, McDowell NG. Who is the new sheriff in town regulating boreal forest growth? Environmental Research Letters 6, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/041004
[5] 2011. Carbone MS, Ambrose A, Dawson TE, Williams AP, Boot CM, Schaeffer SM, Schimel JP, Still CJ. Seasonal and episodic moisture controls on plant and microbial contributions to soil respiration. Oecologia 167:265–278, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-011-1975-3
[4] 2010. Williams AP, Allen CD, Millar C, Swetnam T, Michaelsen J, Still CJ, Leavitt SW. Forest responses to increasing aridity and warmth in southwestern North America. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 107:21289–21294, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0914211107
[3] 2010. Williams AP, Michaelsen, Leavitt SW, Still CJ. Using tree-rings to predict the response of tree growth to climate change in the continental United States during the 21st century. Earth Interactions 14:1–20, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010EI362.1
[2] 2009. Fischer DT, Still CJ, Williams AP. Significance of summer fog and overcast for drought stress and ecological functioning of coastal California endemic plant species. Journal of Biogeography 36:783–799, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2008.02025.x
[1] 2008. Williams AP, Still CJ, Fischer DT, Leavitt SW. The influence of summertime fog and overcast clouds on the growth of a coastal Californian pine: a tree-ring study. Oecologia 156:601–611, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-008-1025-y
Other Publications
2024. Balch JK, Williams AP. Extreme fire seasons are looming – science can help us adapt. Nature, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-024-03433-y
2023. Rao K, Diffenbaugh NS, Konings AG, Williams AP, Yerba M, Bryant C. Lightning-Caused Wildifres are 80 Percent More Likely Under Dry Vegetation. Eos 104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EO235021
2022. Williams AP, Balch JK. The night brakes on fires are failing. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-00352-8
2022. Rao K, Konings AG, Yerba M, Diffenbaugh NS, Williams AP. The fastest population growth in the West’s wildland fringes is in ecosystems most vulnerable to wildfires. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/the-fastest-population-growth-in-the-wests-wildland-fringes-is-in-ecosystems-most-vulnerable-to-wildfires-173410
2021. Williams AP, Cook BI, Smerdon JE. How severe is the megadrought in the West? The Hill. https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/564591-how-severe-is-the-megadrought-in-the-west
2021. Rao K, Diffenbaugh NS, Konings AG, Yerba M, Williams AP. Dry Vegetation in California as it Braces for 2021 Wildfires. EARTH.ORG. https://earth.org/data_visualization/california-2021-wildfire-season
2019. Mankin JT, Seager R, Smerdon JE, Cook BI, Williams AP. Will plants help make the planet wetter or drier in a changing climate? Carbon Brief. https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-will-plants-help-make-the-planet-wetter-or-drier-in-a-changing-climate?
2018. Field RD, Fernandes K, Glover KC, Hansen WD, Rabinowicz J, Williams AP. Understanding the roles of fuels, climate and people in predicting fire: taking the long view. PAGES Magazine 26(1):41, https://doi.org/10.22498/pages.26.1.41
2015. Williams AP. How much has global warming worsened California’s drought? Now we have a number. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/how-much-has-global-warming-worsened-californias-drought-now-we-have-a-number-46445
2015. Williams AP. Megadroughts. Academic Minute: A WAMC National Production. https://academicminute.org/2015/05/a-park-williams-columbia-university-megadroughts/
2011. Williams AP. Forest responses to warming on the Sky Islands of the southwestern United States. Mountain Views 5(1):24–28. http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/cirmount/publications/pdf/Mtn_Views_mar_11.pdf
2010. Williams AP, Funk C. A westward extension of the tropical Pacific warm pool leads to March through June drying in Ethiopia and Kenya. USGS Open-File Report. http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1199/